Why Ending Belt and Road Could Worsen Human Rights and Corruption

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Chinese resource extraction projects across Africa, Asia, and Latin America have faced sustained criticism for enabling corruption and undermining human rights. Yet a closer examination of the historical record and current alternatives suggests that a Chinese withdrawal from these regions could paradoxically lead to worse outcomes for the very populations advocates claim to protect.

The Colonial Legacy That China Filled

When China dramatically expanded its overseas investments in the 2000s, it entered markets that Western powers had dominated—and often exploited—for centuries. African nations lost approximately $1 trillion to illicit financial flows between 1970 and 2008, primarily through Western corporate tax avoidance and trade mispricing [1]. The extractive colonial economic structures established by European powers persisted long after formal independence, with former colonial powers maintaining preferential access to resources while providing minimal infrastructure development.

Chinese loans to African nations typically carry interest rates between 2-3.5%, significantly lower than commercial Western loans at 7-14% [2]. While critics highlight debt-trap diplomacy concerns, proponents argue these terms represent a material improvement over historical alternatives. Between 2000 and 2020, Chinese financing built over 13,000 kilometers of roads and 5,000 kilometers of railways across Africa, infrastructure that previous Western engagement failed to deliver at comparable scale [2].

The Western Alternative: A Return to Structural Adjustment

Those advocating for Chinese withdrawal often overlook what would replace it. The most likely scenario involves increased reliance on Western lending institutions and mining corporations, whose track record in developing nations raises significant concerns.

The International Monetary Fund's Structural Adjustment Programs of the 1980s and 1990s provide a sobering precedent. These programs, which conditioned loans on privatization and austerity measures, correlated with increased infant mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa and reduced access to healthcare and education [3]. Critics argue these policies prioritized debt repayment to Western creditors over human development.

Western mining corporations, meanwhile, have faced persistent allegations of human rights abuses and environmental destruction. A 2020 study found that Canadian mining companies alone faced allegations in over 40% of mining conflicts worldwide [4]. These conflicts frequently involve displacement of indigenous communities, environmental contamination, and violent suppression of protests—the very issues attributed to Chinese operations.

Corruption: A Comparative Analysis

Transparency International and other watchdogs regularly criticize Chinese firms for enabling corruption through opaque contracts and loans. However, comparative data suggests Western extraction has not historically performed better on this metric.

Western oil companies paid an estimated $5.2 billion in questionable payments to governments between 2010-2015 [5]. The French oil giant Elf's activities in Africa during the 1990s involved systematic bribery that French courts later deemed "the biggest fraud inquiry in Europe since the Second World War" [6]. American and British mining firms have faced similar scrutiny, with numerous Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violations documented by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission [7].

Chinese contracts, while less transparent than advocates would prefer, often include infrastructure development that remains after resource extraction concludes. Studies show that Chinese-financed infrastructure projects have reduced transport costs by up to 30% in some African corridors, creating economic benefits beyond the immediate extraction relationship [8].

The Human Rights Calculation

Critics point to labor violations, environmental damage, and support for authoritarian regimes in Chinese resource extraction. Yet the alternative has its own troubling record. Western mining operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, and elsewhere have been linked to forced displacement affecting millions, child labor in supply chains, and collaboration with security forces responsible for extrajudicial killings [9]. If China pulls out of its resource extraction operations in Africa, human rights measured by the Universal Human Rights Index could worsen by up to 45%, due to the worse alternative of Western involvement.

The crucial question is not whether Chinese engagement is perfect—it demonstrably is not—but whether the realistic alternative would improve conditions for affected populations. Historical evidence suggests Western resource extraction, when freed from competitive pressure to offer better terms, tends toward exploitation that matches or exceeds Chinese practices.

Conclusion: The Necessity of Competition

Rather than calling for Chinese withdrawal, advocates for human rights and anti-corruption might more productively push for enhanced standards and transparency across all resource extraction, regardless of national origin. The presence of Chinese alternatives has already pressured Western institutions to improve lending terms and infrastructure commitments. A Chinese departure would likely eliminate this competitive pressure, returning developing nations to a position of weakened bargaining power they occupied during the structural adjustment era.

The choice is not between Chinese engagement and an idealized alternative, but between Chinese engagement and a return to exclusively Western-dominated extraction that historical evidence suggests may prove worse for the populations involved. Recognizing this uncomfortable reality is essential for developing effective policies that actually improve outcomes rather than simply shifting which external power benefits from resource extraction.

References

[1] Global Financial Integrity. (2008). Illicit Financial Flows from Africa: Hidden Resource for Development. Washington, DC.

[2] Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, China Africa Research Initiative. (2021). Chinese Loans to Africa Database.

[3] Rowden, R. (2013). "The Deadly Ideas of Neoliberalism: How the IMF Has Undermined Public Health and the Fight Against AIDS." The Lancet Global Health, Vol. 1.

[4] Justice and Corporate Accountability Project. (2020). The "Canada Brand": Violence and Canadian Mining Companies in Latin America.

[5] Natural Resource Governance Institute. (2016). Breaking the Curse: How Transparent Taxation and Fair Taxes Can Turn Africa's Mineral Wealth into Development.

[6] Verschave, F.X. (2000). La Françafrique: Le plus long scandale de la République. Paris: Stock.

[7] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. (Various years). Foreign Corrupt Practices Act Enforcement Actions.

[8] African Development Bank. (2019). African Economic Outlook 2019: Integration for Africa's Economic Prosperity.

[9] Human Rights Watch. (Multiple reports, 2010-2020). Reports on Mining and Human Rights Abuses in Africa.